E124: Is Venture Capital Entirely Based on Luck? University of Chicago and Oxford Study

Highlights:

Myth of Small Fund Outperformance: David Clark challenges the belief that smaller venture funds consistently outperform larger ones, noting limitations in available data and survivorship bias.

Survivorship Bias in VC Data: Many underperforming funds don't report their results, skewing datasets like PitchBook and Cambridge. Clark highlights Carta as a potential unbiased source for small fund performance data.

Power Law Dynamics in Venture Capital: Vencap's data shows that even growth funds exhibit power law outcomes, with 1.6% of their investments being fund returners—higher than early-stage funds (1%).

Focus on Top-Performing Managers: Over 90% of Vencap's capital goes to 12-13 managers who have a track record of consistently backing fund-returning companies.

Venture vs. Private Equity: Venture funds show stronger persistence of returns compared to private equity, with top-quartile funds often repeating their success.

Fund Size Considerations: Vencap evaluates whether fund sizes align with the ability to back companies that generate massive returns. Excessively large funds can dilute performance potential.

State of Venture Post-2020 Election: While short-term political changes may influence sentiment, Clark emphasizes focusing on long-term relationships with top managers and founders.

Valuation Practices in Venture: Skepticism over inflated venture fund valuations is warranted, but Clark sees signs that portfolios may now be undervalued.

--

Guest Bio: David Clark is the CIO of Vencap, a firm specializing in venture fund investments since the 1980s. With a data-driven approach, Vencap partners with top-performing venture managers to navigate the power law dynamics of venture capital. David’s insights are rooted in decades of data, challenging conventional wisdom and focusing on long-term outperformance in venture markets.

Our Podcast now receives more than 200,000 downloads a month. Are you interested in sponsoring an episode? Please email David Weisburd at [email protected].

We’d like to thank @ReedSmith for sponsoring this episode!

#VentureCapital #VC #Startups #OpenLP #AssetManagement

--

SPONSORS: Reed Smith is a dynamic international law firm dedicated to helping clients move their businesses forward. With an inclusive culture and innovative mindset, Reed Smith delivers smarter, more creative legal services that drive better outcomes for their clients. Their deep industry knowledge, long-standing relationships and collaborative structure make them the go-to partner for complex disputes, transactions, and regulatory matters. Learn more at www.reedsmith.com.

--

Stay Connected: Twitter David Weisburd: @dweisburd David Clark: @DaveClark85

LinkedIn David Weisburd: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dweisburd/ David Clark: https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-clark-6678b6b/

Links VenCap: https://www.vencap.com/

Questions or topics you want us to discuss on How I Invest? Email us at [email protected].